An end to affordable housing in Melbourne?

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By 2021, more than a quarter of a million new houses will need to be built to accommodate Melbourne's booming population, according to a new report.

The report, released today by the Centre for Population and Urban Research (CPUR) at Monash University, examined why housing prices in Melbourne were among the highest in the world despite the State Government’s Melbourne 2030 plan to manage the city's urban growth and development.

Melbourne’s population increased by 665,807 between 2001 and mid-2011. This translated to greater scarcity of housing and a rise in prices in both established suburbia and in new estates on Melbourne’s fringe, 40 kilometres or more from the CBD.

Projections prepared for the report showed the number of new households would continue to grow rapidly, with an additional 266,492 homes required over the 2011-2021 period. Most households requiring accommodation over this decade would have occupants aged between 25 and 34. Most would have children by 2021 or be considering a family, and would therefore require affordable, family-friendly housing.

Lead analyst Dr Bob Birrell, from the CPUR, said Melbourne prices had reached the point where most new households could not afford housing, including the liminted amount of family-friendly housing available.

“The study found that the initiatives outlined in the Melbourne 2030 planning scheme have not solved the problem of increasing costs,” Dr Birrell said.

“This is primarily because the costs of apartments in established suburbia are beyond the financial resources of most new households.”

The study reported that approximately 50 per cent of the new homes built since 2002 were on Melbourne’s fringe.

“The high price of established houses and of new apartments prompted an increasing number of new households to move to new estates,” Dr Birrell said.

“However, cost increases have made traditional fringe house and land packages, worth around $300,000 or more, unaffordable for most aspiring first-home buyers.”