Gillard wins, but is it a hollow victory?
Dr Zareh Ghazarian
By Dr Zareh Ghazarian
There was no surprise when it was revealed that Julia Gillard had comfortably won the Labor leadership contest. After all, the signs were pretty clear that the factions would throw their support behind Gillard rather than reinstate Kevin Rudd. But result may be a case of having won the battle but not the war for Gillard.
Ever since deposing Kevin Rudd in 2010, Gillard has been constantly haunted by Rudd’s presence in parliament. Her actions, whether good or bad, have always been overshadowed by questions about her leadership. During the course of last year, Rudd began to mobilise for another go at the top job. At the same time, leaks and rumours began to increase in number, ultimately leading to a sense that there was a leadership crisis in the Labor Party.
This crisis clearly intensified last week when Rudd resigned from his portfolio and challenged Gillard for leadership of the party. For some observers, the actions of some ministers in strongly attacking Rudd were unpalatable. In turn, those attacking Gillard were also seen to be engaging in dirty politics.
Despite being such a bitter battle, the entire exercise can be seen to have been cathartic for the ALP. The pent up frustration and feelings of injustice, especially those held by Rudd and his supporters, have been released on the biggest stage of all. Now the result is in, and the party must try to move on.
Supporters of both candidates vowed to ‘unite’ after the ballot, but this is something that is very hard to do for a political party. In the 1980s the Liberal Party tore itself up as John Howard and Andrew Peacock fought over the leadership position. It took years for the party to become a more cohesive unit. The Hawke and Keating battle was also a bruising experience for Labor in the early 1990s. (Indeed, even though both men are no longer in parliament, there is still a simmering battle going on between them.)
Poor opinion polls seemed to have precipitated the current Gillard and Rudd showdown. Rudd used his popularity in published polls as a core pillar of his bid to regain the prime ministership. His argument was that his popularity would propel Labor to victory. This would have been a very appealing inducement, especially for many back benchers who have a tenuous hold on their seats. Rudd clearly hoped these ‘marginal’ MPs would support him as they sought to consolidate their own levels of support in their respective electorates. This obviously did not occur.
Instead, the power of the Labor factions shored up Gillard’s support and kept her in the top job. While some commentators have lambasted factions for being somehow unscrupulous, they are an important organisational feature of the Labor Party. Like a mini-party within a major political party, factions aggregate policy demands and give a sense of direction and predictability to the party.
Having won the ballot, Gillard’s problems are still not over. She still has to lead a minority government and therefore must still negotiate and reach compromised decisions with the cross benchers.
There are also poor opinion polls which she will have to deal with. While politicians usually dismiss polls in public, in private they are concerned with the sorts of trends that emerge from them. The trend over the last year has been that the Coalition would thrash Labor in an election. This will prove to be a challenge for Gillard and, if there is no significant change in the polls, the speculation about leadership will surface again.
If this occurs, and another vote on the leadership takes place, Gillard will probably not enjoy the same level of support as she did today. Rather, the factions will seek a candidate who can boost the party’s standing. This may yet leave the door open for Kevin Rudd, although he has vowed to never mount a second challenge to Gillard while she is Prime Minister. Alternatively, the party may choose to go with a new face, someone like Bill Shorten for example.
Either way, Gillard has prevailed in the face of a significant challenge today. But the potential challenges facing her government mean that the future looks anything but smooth for her prime ministership.
Dr Zareh Ghazarian is a lecturer within the School of Political and Social Inquiry at Monash University.